Eating Disorders :: essays research papers

There are galore(postnominal) different types of exhausting disorders in our world today and many suffer from them. Young women, and the reason is unknown, are the main targets (Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 147). I believe young women are more apt because of the ideal media, newspapers, magazines, etc. Thats how they feel they desire to live up to, and also they are more emotional and are in that stage of life where things like this matter a lot. There are two very common eating disorders, anorexia and bulimia. Anorexia nervosa is an eating disorder that is characterized by a person with a body weight less than 85% of what is considered natural weight. Anorexics have a fear of being fat (Sonder, ). Anorexics limit their food intake, which is the same thing as starvation. A person who is anorexic continues to diet yet when they are bone thin. They are never satisfied with their appearance. They engage in excessive exercising and long depressions, these are just some of the dang er signals that anorexics show. This self-starving doings can lead to sever emancipation or even death. Anorexics see normal fat (folds of flesh) on the body as fat that needs to be eliminated. They often find sleeping and resting a discomfort because they have lost their normal body fat. Victims of this serious disorder tend to further from family and friends. They want to be isolated. There are many dangers from starving yourself. The body tends to slow down or even stop certain body processes, your blood pressure whitethorn fall, breathing rate may drop, and menstruation also stops. They thyroid gland disappears, and this is the gland that regulates your growth. Your nails and hair become brittle, you skin is dry, and you suffer form light headiness, constipation, and bulge of the joints. When fat is reduced, the body temperature begins to fall, and soft hair forms on the body for warmth. Your body chemicals may also be so imbalanced, heart failure may occur. citizenry who suff er from bulimia nervosa also want to be thin, but they do it in a different fashion called binging and purging (Sonder, ). Binging is when a person impart eat a bunch of food, exceeding normal calorie intake. Purging is the way they get rid of it. This way you are still able to eat and then still be thin, but this is very dangerous and can often be deadly.

And Then There Were None Essay -- essays research papers

And Then There Were None, written by Agatha Christie is a thrilling tale of ten people invited to a remote island by an unseen figure who n ever appears through step to the fore the story. All those who were invited have pasts that they are hiding and many things to fear. The guests are cast upon Indian Island, an island off the coast of England or so the 1930s. Strangers to each other, slowly they reveal their shameful pasts. Coincidently, the name which they were invited by, Mr. U. N. Owen sounds similar to that of the word unknown. Among the characters is a Mr. Wargrave, a recently retired judge, who is intelligent, cold, and commanding. He takes take onership on the island after the killings begin. Wargrave is the original to insist publicly that they are dealing with a homicidal maniac, and the first to acknowledge that the killer must be part of their group. Vera Claythorne is witty and believes she was employ as a secretary to Mrs. Owen. Philip Lombard, a mysterious man, served as a soldier in Africa and often carries a gun with him. Among the other characters are William Blore, an ex-detective, and Dr. Armstrong who thinks he has been hired to look after the wife of the islands owner. Emily Brent, General Macarthur, Tony Marston think they have been invited for a visit with old friends. And Then There Were None examines justice, but it bend the manifestation by making the victims of murder, people who committed murder themselves. It expresses the theme of what the burden of ones own guilty conscience can lead that person to perform. Upon arriving on the island, they are greeted by Mr. and Mrs. Rodgers who were hired as the butler and housekeeper. That evening after dinner they hear a recorded voice charge each of them of a specific murder committed in the past and never uncovered. Talking about the accusations, they realize none of them actually have ever met or know Mr. U.N. Owen. As they ponder this mysterious matter, Tony Marston chokes on poi soned whiskey and dies. Vera Claythorne observes similarities between the death of Marston and the first verse of a nursery rhyme, Ten exact Indians, that hangs in each bedroom. The next morning the guests find that Mrs. Rogers apparently died in her sleep. The guests hope to leave that morning, but the boat that regularly delivers supplies to the island do... ...gives the book a rattling(prenominal) plot and ending. The book addresses the idea that only the dead are above suspicion. A baffling mystery, And Then There Were None can be enjoyed by even the most immature of people. Ten Little IndiansTen little Indian boys went out to dine one choked his little self and past there were nine.Nine little Indian boys sat up very late One overslept himself and thusly there were eight.Eight little Indian boys change of location in Devon One said hed stay there and then there were seven.Seven little Indian boys chopping up sticks One chopped himself in halves and then there were sixSix little Indian boys playing with a hive A bumblebee stung one and then there were five. quint little Indian boys going in for law One got in Chancery and then there were four.Four little Indian boys going out to sea A red herring swallowed one and then there were three.Three little Indian boys walking in the zoo A cock-a-hoop bear hugged one of them and then there were two.Two little Indian boys sitting in the sun One got frizzled up and then there was one.One little Indian boy left all alone He went and hanged himself... And then there were none

John Updikes A & P Essay -- John Updike A & P Social Class Wealth Ess

John Updikes A & PAt first read, John Updikes A & P contrasts quondam(a) and new the old manager in his settled life conflicting with the new age of girls wearing bathing suits in buildings. All the while, the narrator stuck in the oculus, finally deciding to join the side of new, or youth. Instead of old vs. new, an observation closer to the heart of the story is conflict between the worlds of the rich and the middle class. ?A & P? is the setting for one man to decide in which way he will seek to follow his life, standing on his experience two feet and treating everyone as equals, or bowing before the wealthy, and searching for his own riches above all else.In walk three girls into a grocery store store in bathing suits. They?re far enough away from the beach that it is customary for them to be wearing more clothes. Their actions are deliberate and misinform they came in the store to buy one item, but that was not their purpose for being there. It?s easy to extract from the sto ry that the girls stood out in some(prenominal) ways, money being an important one. Updike presents surface-to-air missile the cashier as thinking, ?Her father and the other men were standing around in ice-cream coats and bow ties and the women were in sandals pickax up herring snacks on toothpicks off a big glass plate and they were all holding drinks the color of water with olives and sprigs of mint in them.? Sam?s impression of the girls was obviously that they came from wealth, something that he could not claim of himself. And although he outwardly admired their bodies, he was really admiring their wealth. The girls walked in and by the lack of obligingness of their dress, immediately they set a different tone within the store. They walked the wrong way down isles and paid no att... ...o become what they are, so that he crapper walk around and have others treat him with respect above others.In ?A & P? John Updike gives a story of a man face up with two choices for his life in a seemingly unimportant circumstance. He hatful stand up for himself and for his rules, as his manager encourages him to do so. But as the story goes, he remains oblivious to the forces at work, and decides to bend his will to three girls in bathing suits, or more generally, to those who have the power and noblesse of wealth behind them. Sam makes the wrong choice, and subsequently, makes the rest of his life more difficult, as he admits that he must life his life under other class of people, the wealthy, as though he is less than them. By admitting that he is less than them, Sam has started to live his life not for the happiness he can obtain, but for the wealth he can obtain.

What Purpose does Section one serve in a Reading of To Kill a Mockingbird? :: English Literature

What Purpose does Section one serve in a rendering of To Kill a Mockingbird?Section 1 of the novel To Kill a Mockingbird, by Harper Leeestablishes the main style and themes of the narrative. It begins by self-aggrandising a brief summary of the hi baloney of the Finch family beforesetting the scene for the main action of the novel. It introduces thereader to the main characters who will, Scout, Jem, Atticus and MissMaudie and nigh of the families who ar relevant to the story, theRadleys and the Ewells. Some of the themes of the book become apparentin the root section and are then continued and elaborated on in the sulfur half. Questions are also raised that arouse the readersinterest and encourage them to read on.From the first page it becomes apparent to the reader the book iswritten in first person tense, but it is several pages before thereader is informed that the story is to be related by a six year-oldgirl. The protagonist of the novel is Scout, a proud, headstrong girlwho claims that she Never loved to read. One does not lovebreathing. The story begins by her commenting on events that do notbecome clear until the end of the novel. She says I apply that theEwells started it all but she does not explain what they started andthe reader only discovers what she means as more of the story isrevealed. This catches the attention of the reader, as their curiosityis aroused and they want to hunch over what she is talking about.The writer then goes on to write a short history of the Finch familyand a description of each of the characters immediately involved inthe story Atticus, Calpurnia and Dill. This provides a background tothe events that are yet to happen and gets the reader to wish to knowmore about these people. The reader then becomes acquainted with theircharacters, attitudes and opinions and this provides the reader withsome knowledge of how they will react to the events that happen in thesecond part of the novel.The first chapter also describes the events relating to the Radleyfamily. It is a bit of a myth made from rumours that encounter been passedon from person to person until it the stories become completelyunbelievable. This is humorous because the reader bear see throughScouts eyes and although these things are completely ridiculous theycan see that believes them. These events are not concluded and thereader can see that there will be more about this family in the second

Robert Frost :: essays research papers

Robert hoarRobert halt (1874-1963) was one of the finest of rural New Englands 20th century pastoral poets. Frost published his first books in Great Britain in the 1910s, but he soon became in his own country the most read and constantly anthologized poet. Frost was awarded the Pulitzer Prize four times. Robert Frost was born in San Francisco, California on March 26, 1874. His father, a journalist and local politician, died when Frost was eleven years old. His Scots mother resumed her career as a schoolteacher to support her family. The family lived in Lawrence, Massachusetts, with Frosts paternal grandfather. In 1892 Frost graduated from a high school and accompanied Dartmouth College for a few months. Over the next ten years he held a number of jobs. In 1894 the New York Independent published Frosts poem "My toy" and he had five poems privately printed. In 1895 he married a former schoolmate, Elinor White they had six children. Frost worked as a teacher and keep to w rite and publish his poems in magazines. From 1897 to 1899 Frost studied at Harvard, but left without receiving a degree. He moved to Derry, New Hampshire, working there as a cobbler, farmer, and teacher at Pinkerton Academy and at the state normal school in Plymouth. In 1912 Frost sold his farm and took his wife and four young children to England. There he published his first accrual of poems, A Boys Will (1913) followed by North Boston (1914), which gained international reputation. The collection contains some of Frosts best-known poems "Mending Wall," "The Death of the Hired Man," "Home Burial," "After Apple-Picking," and "The Wood-Pile." After returning to the US in 1915 with his family, Frost bought a farm conterminous Franconia, New Hampshire. He taught later at Amherst College (1916-38) and Michigan universities. In 1916 Frost was made a member of the National Institute of Arts and Letters. In the identical year appeared his third co llection of verse, Mountain Interval, which contained such poems as "The Road Not Taken," "Birches," and "The Hill Wife." Frosts images - woods, stars, houses, brooks, - are usually taken from everyday life. With his realistic approach to his subjects, readers found it easy to follow the poet into deeper truths, without being burdened with pedantry. In 1920 Frost purchased a farm in South Shaftsbury, Vermont, near Middlebury College. His wife died in 1938 and he lost four of his children.

Robert Frost :: essays research papers

Robert rimeRobert Frost (1874-1963) was one of the finest of rural New Englands 20th century pastoral poets. Frost published his first books in Great Britain in the 1910s, but he soon became in his own country the most read and constantly anthologized poet. Frost was awarded the Pulitzer Prize quartette times. Robert Frost was born in San Francisco, California on March 26, 1874. His father, a journalist and local politician, died when Frost was eleven years old. His Scottish mother resumed her career as a schoolteacher to support her family. The family lived in Lawrence, Massachusetts, with Frosts paternal grandfather. In 1892 Frost graduated from a high school and attended Dartmouth College for a few months. everywhere the next ten years he held a number of jobs. In 1894 the New York Independent published Frosts poem "My Butterfly" and he had five poems in camera printed. In 1895 he married a former schoolmate, Elinor White they had six children. Frost worked as a teacher and continued to write and publish his poems in magazines. From 1897 to 1899 Frost studied at Harvard, but left without receiving a degree. He moved to Derry, New Hampshire, working there as a cobbler, farmer, and teacher at Pinkerton Academy and at the state normal school in Plymouth. In 1912 Frost sold his farm and took his wife and four young children to England. There he published his first allurement of poems, A Boys Will (1913) followed by North Boston (1914), which gained international reputation. The collection contains some of Frosts best-known poems " mend Wall," "The Death of the Hired Man," "Home Burial," "After Apple-Picking," and "The Wood-Pile." After returning to the US in 1915 with his family, Frost bought a farm near Franconia, New Hampshire. He taught later at Amherst College (1916-38) and Michigan universities. In 1916 Frost was made a member of the National Institute of Arts and Letters. In the same year appeared his th ird collection of verse, Mountain Interval, which contained such poems as "The Road Not Taken," "Birches," and "The Hill Wife." Frosts images - woods, stars, houses, brooks, - are usually taken from everyday life. With his down-to-earth approach to his subjects, readers found it light to follow the poet into deeper truths, without being burdened with pedantry. In 1920 Frost purchased a farm in South Shaftsbury, Vermont, near Middlebury College. His wife died in 1938 and he lost four of his children.

Profit and Loss Essay

A salary and loss account is something crinklees use to show them their revenue, be and profits for that certain socio-economic class, indeed showing the total amount of profit that the task has made that year, it is extremely important for the business, in particular for the accounts department who chair refer to the profit and loss account a lot. This is because it clearly lays out what the business has played out, and what the business has brought in, it is easy for the business to identify any problems involving finance, and these problems can be solved.Sales Revenue is all of the money which is coming into the business as a result of them selling their products and services, this figure is from purely sales, nonhing is taken forth from sales revenue. I am going to use Whitbreads profit and loss account to show examples of sales revenue, their sales revenue for the year 2002/3 was 1,794.1m and 2,014.3m for the year 2001/2, this figure tells the business that their turn all over has decreased in the past year, this could be for a variety of different reasons, of them is that the business had slightly more food market share in 2001/2, however since than similar businesses have moved into the market and customers interests has been attracted towards those. Also, the business in itself whitethorn have decreased in quality, customers may not be as happy with the business as they were in the previous year and therefore have chose to visit other companies as a result of this.The cost of sales is how a great deal it has cost the business to make a product/service, for example, a company selling jam, their cost of sales would be how frequently it has cost them to produce the jars of jam, this would be the ingredients and jars. For 2001/2, the cost of sales are at a loss of 1.5480.0m, for 2002/3 they stand at a loss of 1,353.1m, therefore the cost of sales were high for the year 2001/2. Reasons for which they cost of sales decreasing could be that the bu siness is now not wasting as many black materials and only using what they aim. Whitbreads cost of sales could be paying suppliers of places such as Beefeaters for the products which they produce.Raw materials are materials which the business uses in order to produce a product, for example, a Pizza shop get out need to import raw materials such as flour, cheese, tomatoes and pepperoni, these raw materials are they created into a finished product, in this case, the pizza.Opening and closing stock is to do with stock and the financial year, how much stock the company has at the start of their financial year, and how much they have at the end, this way the business can look at how successful a product has been throughout the year.Expenditure in a business is what it is costing them to keep the business running, without these things the business would not be able to keep running, these are known as ongoing costs. There are a large variety of expenditure costs, for example-employee co sts -repairs -interest -administration -distribution costs -etcLooking at Whitbreads accounts, in 2001/2, their expenditure was 389.9m and for 2002/3 was 203.9m. In 2001, Whitbreads spent 25m on restructuring costs, meaning this money was spent on ways ti improve the business, new-fashioned technology may have been purchased so the business does not need to spend money on other expenses.Depreciation is when an asset, for example a car, loses value over time, a car bought in 2001, will be worth less in 2002, this is because new models will have been launched and therefore customers will prefer these. On the profit and loss account, depreciation is barf under expenses. In 2001/2 deprecation for Whitbreads was 3.9m, and for 2002/3 was 7.8m. Therefore depreciation was much high during 2002/3, the reason for this is probably the fact that during the restriction stages, the company has purchased new technology which has now decreased in valueTaxation is known as the corporation tax whic h has to be paid by all contain companies, it is taken from their profits, and is usually a cut of them, this goes is paid to the government, obviously every companys taxation is different. Whitbreads taxation in 2001/2 was 59.4m, for the year 2002/3 it stands at 50.0m., therefore taxsation was around 5.9.4m higher in 2001/2, this is because this year the business had a slightly higher sales turnover, meaning the taxation is higher. hoggish profit is all profit made from the business, including what it has cost the business to keep running i.e. expenses.. This means that gorss profit is sales revenue, minus cost of sales, this figure creates staring(a) profit.Sales Revenue Cost of sales = Gross ProfitGross profit during 2001/2 stands at 466.3m, and for the year 2002/3 are 441.0m. This tells us that unrefined profit was slightly higher in 2001/2, this is because there was a different number of sales in this year that the other. However, the gross profit figure may also be differe nt because the company is not bringing in as many sales as in other years. The business essential be aware that the gross profit is not a true indication of their current performance because it does not take into accountNet profit is the businesses total profit for that financial year, in order to figure out the lettuce profit, the business must first work out the gross profit, because take away business expenses, giving the final profit figure. For the year 2001/2, the net profit was a loss of 52.4m, however in 2002/3 the businesses net profit was 152.8m, meaning the business made a higher net profit in 2002/3. The reason for this is probably the fact that the business under went a lot of reconstruction. The net profit gives Whitbreads a clear indication on how they are performing as a company.Looking at Whitbreads accounts, I would say that as a business, they have clearly made excellent improvements since their reconstruction, they have gone from making a large loss, to making a large profit in just a year. Therefore I would defiantly invest in Whitbreads, however I would prefer to see the accounts of Whitbread over the next few years to make sure customers havent lost interest, in a few years time, Whitbreads may need to make more improvements to its business to make sure they are keeping up to date.

Critique of The Law of Apostasy in Islam Essay

In 1924 Samuel Zwemer wrote The Law of Apostasy in Islam as a response to several books and articles that claimed there is no penalisation in Islam for apostate Muslims. Zwemer quotes Khwajah Kemal-ud-Din who wrote in his book India in the Balance, in Islam there is no penalty for apostasy and Mohammed Alis English translation of The Koran incomplete here nor anywhere else in the Holy Koran is there even a hint of the infliction of capital or any new(prenominal) penalty on the apostate. Zwemer disputes these claims and tries to prove his contention that there is a long history of punishing apostates throughout the Muslim world (Zwemer 8-9). Zwemer was a missionary for the Christian Dutch Reformed church in the Middle East during the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. The people he worked with and tried to convert to Christianity were Muslims. Zwemer begins his purpose in the chapter Why so Few Moslem Converts by citing numerous cases where Muslims practic ed penalization and ostracism against apostate Muslims, that is, Muslims who had converted to Christianity.The incidents described are anecdotical and deal with specific examples where apostate Muslims underwent punishment or discrimination at the hands of practicing Muslims. Assuming, for the sake of argument, Zwemer is correct and such practices occurred, Zwemer still does not disprove all of the statements quoted above. What Zwemer proves is that some Muslims were punished, nothing more. He has not proven the Koran supports such practices.The title of this chapter must give the reader pause it does not seem to be the title of an intellectual argument, but more like a defense of his and other missionaries efforts while working among Muslims. Apparently he had concluded the reason for his overleap of success was due to fear of punishment by other Muslims, not because he was a bad missionary, or because the tenets of Islam were more convincing to people in the region than the pri nciples in Christianity (Zwemer 15-29).In the chapter two The Law of Apostasy Zwemer quotes three passages of the Koran that he claims indicate an official sanctioning of punishment of apostates. Zwemer is unconvincing. The phrase expunge from them apostate Muslims neither patron or help (IV. 90, 91) and alleges that the standard commentary of Baidhawi, whoever that is, means take and kill him wheresoever you find ye find him, like any other infidel (Zwemer 33).It appears Baidhawi has chosen an interpretation that is not justified from the original text. He treats the other passages in a similar fashion, interpreting them to mean apostates should be killed or punished, when a more straightforward interpretation does not imply his conclusion. Zwemer errs in at least two fashions. First he appears to equate evidence that indicates punishment has been administered against apostates indicates the sanction of such actions by the teaching of Islam. This is not the case.Throughout history there are far too many examples where common practices were either straight off prohibited by official policies or were not addressed by these policies. This does not indicate official policies authorized such actions. Secondly, Zwemers evidence is generally either anecdotal or demand such contrived interpretations of the Koran as to unconvincing. Consequently The Law of Apostasy in Islam does not prove that punishment for apostate Muslims is a tenant of Islam.Works CitedZwemer, Samuel M. The Law of Apostasy. London Marshall Brothers Ltd, n. d.

Popular Girls Essay

Popular girls is a short story from 2001 by K atomic number 18n Shephard. She is born and raised in rising York and her work has been print in several papers. The short-story sets in the early 80s where we get some insight in the life of five rich and popular girls. They atomic number 18 self-centered and foolt have the slightest inte substitute in different sight. Their entire life is about maintaining their image as a group. The setting is New York, which is the riches city in the US. The city is also known as The big Apple and The city that never sleeps. This reflects in the mentality of these girls. They do speed, and not weed, because they want to get through school as fast as possible. They want to live life in the fast-lane and do extravagant things. Every dissever of the text concerns some aspect of their life described in details. Every little thing about their life is mentivirtuosod. Their life and how they live it, is basically compose as some kind of guidebook to popularity. A very important part of this popularity is the labels and the famous places of New York. This just underlines the superficiality of these girls lives.Throughout the entire text, the cashier addresses the reader. The narrator seems to be a us and a we. Somehow it is someone within the group of girls narrating or the entire group as one mavin unit addressing the reader. By saying things homogeneous You know who we are(p.1 l.1) and You weedt get enough of us makes it very clear, that they are aware of their status. It peck also be a way of r apieceing out to the reader and making the reader remember how school was in the 80s. Many people could have certain girls in their mind when reading this short story. Even from the very first decry. The attitude of the text is a bit provoking. The first sentence is also a good example of this. By continuously addressing the reader, it keeps on having the effect of them being superior to not just other people, but you. As if you were actually there at the time. It is very clear that the narrator is focused on the us and you and them.The popular girls against the rest of the world. You cant be a part of their clique, but you can be a friend of the clique. This can be seen physically by their moat of backpacks (p.1 l.22).Their other friends can sit on the other side of their moat, but cannot be let in. These girls only focus on their appearanceand of how other people perceive them. They dont exactly worry about these things, but it constitutes their entire life. Where they go, where they sit, how they sit, it has to be the right way. They are not interested in other people and uncomplete are they in each other,Youre crying we say, pointing.(p.7 l.169) as if this is just a mere fact and they how no idea of how to act upon this. They only like the idea of themselves as a group of perfect friends, which is exactly what they are doing by saying Its a carrying into action of us, the group of us (p.6 l.147) and tint at you, we are saying. Look at you.We are happy together, part of something and not alone, and we celebrate that out loud.(p.149-151) their entire life is a performance of themselves and the performance of the fact that they are not alone. Perhaps they do feel alone in a life of rich parents that bring back dolls and pearls from business trips for their collection. thither is a conflation of identities between these girls as they dont work as individuals, but just as a group. This is made clear on knave 2 line 58. We walk in the formation of migrating geese. Here the author uses humor/irony to emphasize the slight silliness of the group when comparing them to poultry. They are basically a herd of animals dependent of each other. Even though they define themselves as a group, Stephanie seems to be the leader, as she is described as a slightly more individual person Were Kaethe and Alina, CJ and Sydney. Stephanie.(p.1, l.1) here she is singled out as their frontline figure.Steph anie is the tallest and also in the center of their geese-formation. She also dictates the idea of wearing these special rings, which they all obey. The girls have this special bond that consists of a strong friendship, but probably because they cant see a way out. Without the rest of the pack, they would feel hopeless. None of them dares to leave anyone behind. The ending is a picture of their friendship whilst they perform as a group, they also make a performance for each other. No one knows them, not even their family and not even their own clique. They put on a performance of their popularity, even for their friends. Somehow, without words, they push each other to do things that are considered cool. But none of them knows when to stop.Whatever happens will be performed in front of the group. We ask ourselves weather we can actually do this ()We are uneasy. Nothing about this whole thing will be graceful. No one is leaving(p.8 l.198-201) none of the girls wants to be the onechic kening-out, no one wants to be the one leaving the rest behind. Leaving now would be a kind of betrayal or a manse of weakness. Their obsession of being popular and someone important is a postmodern theme, also seen in Not yet, Jayette by William Boyd from 1981. Although he does not reach this purpose, he has the same goals and views of life as these popular girls. None of them will ever feel complete, with or without these materialistic things.

Core Value of Coca-Cola

Core values and beliefs Coca-Cola has the just about valuable brand name in the dry land, and as one of the most visible companies terra firmawide. The burnish of it is defined by the seven core values leadership, the courage to shape a better future passion, Committed in center of attention and mind Leverage collective genius integrity, be real collaboration, diversity, as inclusive as our brands quality, what we do, we do well and account dexterity.The central promise is to refresh the world in mind, body, and spirit, and inspire moments of optimism to create value and make a residue in the world. As a global business, our ability to understand, embrace and operate in a multi pagan world both in the marketplace and in the body of work is critical to our sustainability.Their diversity workplace strategy includes programs to attract, retain, and develop diverse genius provide support systems for groups with diverse backgrounds and educate all associates so that we master th e skills to achieve sustainable growth. Their diversity workplace strategy includes programs to attract, retain, and develop diverse talent provide support systems for groups with diverse backgrounds and educate all associates so that we master the skills to achieve sustainable growth.Rules of behavior The vision serves as the framework guide every aspect of the company business by describing what the employees need to accomplish in order to continue achieving sustainable, quality growth from the following five aspects people, Be a great place to work where people are inspired to be the best they can be portfolio, Bring to the world a portfolio of quality potable brands that anticipate and satisfy peoples desires and needs.Partners Nurture a winning network of customers and suppliers, together we create mutual, enduring value planet, be a responsible citizen that makes a difference by helping build and support sustainable communities profit, Maximize long-term return to shareowners while being mindful of our overall responsibilities and productivity, Be a exceedingly effective, lean and fast-moving organization. In the world of international trade, products withal carry cultural values and many of these products remain as commodities but others emerge as cultural icons.How do certain products institute on a special symbolic status and are idealized in a culture? The answer to this headway is a rather convoluted one. It has to do with how cultural artifacts are embedded into the cultural space of the past. Language use Coca Cola has been sold in more than two hundred countries under their local languages. But the official language of coca cola is English. In the language they have already used in the local language because thats another marketing strategy to appeal to the local customers.Relationship with employees Respecting human rights and protecting workplace rights is fundamental frequency to its culture and imperative for a sustainable business. An essential ingredient in every one of the products is profound commitment to human rights and workplace rights. Its human rights statement is point by the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights, the ILO declaration on fundamental principles and rights at work and related international covenants. Every worker has a fundamental right to a safe and healthy workplace.Providing a safe and healthy working environment for all of our people is a core element of our employment Rights Policy and fundamental to the success of our business. In recent years, they have more clearly defined what we stand for with respect to human and workplace rights. They have also begun the complex work of ensuring that their entire business system and supply chain align with our policies. They expect their company, their bottling partners and their suppliers to avoid causing, or contributing to, adverse human rights impacts as a result of business actions and to address such impacts when they occur.Importa nt symbols and artifacts The distinctive symbol is recognized the world over on Coca-Cola adverts, bottles and cans but it has also undergone a few changes over the last century and a quarter. In the world of international trade, products also carry cultural values and many of these products remain as commodities but others emerge as cultural icons. How do certain products take on a special symbolic status and are idealized in a culture? The answer to this question is a rather complex one. It has to do with how cultural artifacts are embedded into the cultural space of the past.In the world of international trade, products also carry cultural values and many of these products remain as commodities but others emerge as cultural icons. How do certain products take on a special symbolic status and are idealized in a culture? The answer to this question is a rather complex one. It has to do with how cultural artifacts are embedded into the cultural space of the past. Appropriateness an d the relevance to organizational history and the culture As a global business, our ability to understand, embrace and operate in a multicultural world both in the marketplace and in he workplace is critical to our sustainability. Their diversity workplace strategy includes programs to attract, retain, and develop diverse talent provide support systems for groups with diverse backgrounds and educate all associates so that we master the skills to achieve sustainable growth. Our diversity workplace strategy includes programs to attract, retain, and develop diverse talent provide support systems for groups with diverse backgrounds and educate all associates so that we master the skills to achieve sustainable growth.

Ideal student Essay

Students are the future hope of the country. A pupil is like clay which can be molded into any shape. Hence, it is very necessary that the schoolchild should be brought up and taught in the right ways. Teachers and parents are responsible for shaping the character of students. Discipline is the first quality of a student. He has to live with levelheaded behavior and in a discipline way. This is the time of life when the foundation of character is laid. A student without a sense of discipline is like a ship without a rudder. He should be obedient, cautious, humble and simple.He should respect his elders and gain knowledge so that he may become a good citizen. A good student should be studious. He should not only study but withal let others study from him. For this he will have to be law-abiding. An ideal student should keep himself healthy by taking part in games and purposeless curricular activities. He should be an all rounder. He should select his friend intelligently and wis ely. He should have no evil in him and let no evil tempt him. An ideal student should be any time helping and an amusing friend. He should keep the atmosphere lively by his seriocomic nature.He should never be passive in mind and body. He should take an active part in the activities of the school. He should be a get-go of inspiration for others. The school is a community and an ideal student should have good relations with his authorities and friends. He should be frank and fearless. An ideal student will admit his mistake, get it corrected and learn from it. He is fully conscious of his duties and responsibilities. He sets an example for the younger generation. An ideal student has many good qualities. He presents an ideal model of character before others such a student will be an asset to others.

Lincoln: the Great Emancipator Essay

Until it was abolished in 1865, slavery thrived in the United States since the nations beginnings in the colony of Jamestown in 1607. In 1776, the founding fathers stated that all men are formd equal when they declared indep residualence and started a fight that freed the 13 colonies from the oppressive rule of Great Britain. However, after the land of the free had been established, slavery had yet to be eliminated. After the struggle of 1812, sectionalism began to grow prevalent in the States. The Industrial Revolution in the early to mid-1800s advanced the country technologically while further dividing it as the North became industrialized and the South became more farming(prenominal) and reliant on slave labor. Sectionalism was increased by westward expansion, and began to manifest itself in the Statesn politics. The country could have gone to war by the early 1800s, but various political compromises held the two sections together for another half of a century.The Missouri Com promise of 1820 and the Compromise of 1850 are two grand examples. Tensions built over the 40 years of compromise. Abolitionists worked to gain support in the North while they caused outrage in the South. In the governance, everything had to be compromised and everything was a competition, much(prenominal) as legislature and westward expansion. Fortunately, when sectionalism and tensions around slavery boiled over, Abraham capital of Nebraska came to the forefront of US politics. He created a reputation for himself and the Re populacean political party with a political platform against the expansion of slavery. He became known in the South as an abolitionist through the capital of Nebraska-Douglas debates, and his election in 1860 sparked the secession of 11 southern states from the Union and the beginning of the gracious state of war.Abraham capital of Nebraska was the most important contributor to ending slavery in the States because of his actions toward winning the Civil W ar and emancipating the slaves, and he was able to do this because he was an extraordinary politician who handled the circumstances as nobody else could have managed.Abraham Lincolns ability as a politician was crucial in his role as commander-in-chief of the US army during the Civil War, because to end slavery, Lincoln knew he had to win the war. The first thing Lincoln did as president, in his Inaugural Address, was try to calm the frantic South, re-stating that he had no purpose, directly or indirectly, to interfere with the institution of slavery where it exists, (Halsall). Lincolnsprimary goal was to preserve the Union. As he put it, If I could save the union without freeing any slave, I would do it, (Majerol, 25-26). He necessitate the support for the war from the Northern citizens, many of whom were not abolitionists. Lincoln was faced with another awkward issue throughout the Civil War. Four statesMissouri, Kentucky, Maryland, and Delawareheld slaves but remained in the U nion.If Lincoln waged a war that strongly opposed slavery, he risked losing those Border States to the Confederacy, which would probably cost him the war. Another issue that Lincoln had to deal with over the extend of the war was incompetent generals. Lincoln discharged many of his generals throughout the war, which do it difficult to carry out his plans. In a telegram to General McClellan, Lincoln urged him to attack Lee The present hesitation to move upon an entrenched enemy is but the story of Manassas repeated, but McClellan ignored the order (Ayers et. al, 369). It was not until Lincoln official Ulysses S. Grant commander of all Union armies that he started having consistent success. If Lincoln had not been elected president, slavery may have trackd for much womb-to-tomb in America.Besides the fact that Lincoln, as commander-in-chief, lead the Union Army to win the Civil War, the many proposed compromises in 1860 and 1861 might have allowed slavery to continue in America, such as the Crittenden Compromise. Another important way that Lincolns skill as a politician benefited the Union was his treatment of the Confederacy. Lincoln reasoned that since it is unconstitutional to secede from the Union, the Confederacy and its government was illegitimate, and Lincolns administration refused to recognize the Confederacys independence. This became important later in the war when other nations refused to recognize the Confederacys independence.When the time was right, Abraham Lincoln masterfully changed the political theory of the war to focus on slavery, and he used the slaves themselves as a powerful force in the war and on the home front. Lincoln did this through the First and Second Confiscation manages, the emancipation declaration, and his Second Inaugural Address. former(a) in the war, three slaves escaped to the Union Army, raising the question of what to do with fugitive slaves. Under the Fugitive Slave Act, they had to be returned to their owners in the Confederacy. However, Lincoln adoptive an ingenious policy of taking slaves as contrabandof war, treating them as property as the Confederacy did.Lincoln went on to sign the First Confiscation Act in August 1861, which emancipated slaves that escaped to Union lines. In July 1862, Lincoln signed the Second Confiscation Act, which essentially gave him the authority to emancipate the slaves in confederative territory (on the grounds that they helped the war effort and were contraband). This legislation helped the Union Army greatly. Over 190,000 soldiers, sailors, and workers came to the Union Army from the Confederacy (McPherson, 193), and at the end of the war, African Americans made up 20 percent of the Union Army (Majerol, 26). The escaped slaves also influenced soldiers in the army who now were talking with real men and women who had been (and perhaps soundless were) slaves, (Goodheart, 15). However, a vastly more important document was the Emancipation proclamation. Lin coln drafted the document in July 1862 and showed it to his cabinet. William Seward reminded him of the importance of timing, so Lincoln waited until the army won the competitiveness of Antietam to issue the resolve. In a letter Lincoln wrote in 1864, he stated when, early in the war, Gen. Fremont attempted military emancipation, I forbade it, because I did not and then think it in indispensable necessity. Lincoln then cites two more examples of him holding off efforts at emancipation (Fehrenbacher, 257). When it was issued on January 1, 1863, the Emancipation Proclamation was a turning point in the ideology of the war. It took a war that had been officially about preserving the Union and made it about ending slavery. The Emancipation Proclamation was a bold move for Lincoln to make because of the pro-slavery Border States.Lincoln had made earnest, and successive appeals there for compensated emancipation, but was rejected (Fehrenbacher, 257). He then had to make a choice between surrendering the Union or laying a strong hand upon the colored element, hoping to outweigh losses with benefits (Fehrenbacher, 258). Over a year later, Lincoln said he felt no losses, and a gain of 130,000 soldiers, seamen, and laborers. Lincoln certainly had good timing when he issued the Emancipation Proclamation. Britain and France were approaching closer to aiding the Confederacy, and in Britains case, they only wanted the Confederacy to win one more battle to prove that they were on the winning side of the war. Antietam was a terrible loss for the South, and Lincolns Emancipation Proclamation prevented Britain and France from aiding the Confederacy because they both hadanti-slavery governments, and the war was now about slavery. The Emancipation Proclamation was a quick of scent move for Lincoln as an abolitionist, because it allowed blacks to fight in the military, which might lead to citizenship and the right to vote for blacks (Civil War Black Soldiers). Lastly, Lincoln focused public attention on the issue of slavery in his Second Inaugural Address, reminding the people know what their brothers were fighting for.Abraham Lincolns most important fictitious character was that he was a great politician, which allowed him to manage the difficult situations put before him in order to provide actual results that ultimately ended slavery in America. Among these results were Union victory in the Civil War, the Emancipation Proclamation, the First and Second Confiscation Acts, the Gettysburg Address, and the Thirteenth Amendment. The Union victory in the Civil War is a simple fact, but it was the most indispensable step to the end of slavery in America. Ending slavery meant nothing if the Union did not win the war and control the South again. Additionally, without a war in the first place, slavery might not have ended. It is possible that a compromise could have held the shared nation together without putting an end to slavery. Lincolns talent as a politi cian was also crucial in the Emancipation Proclamation when he released it in time to prevent any foreign nations from intervening and aiding the Confederacy.Lincoln showed his skill as a politician in the Lincoln-Douglass debates, when he took a careful stance on slavery that he thought would best suit the needs of the nation at the time. Lincoln was constantly stressing that he was not an abolitionist, and it was ridiculous to assume that Just because I do not want a negro woman for a slave I must needs want her for a wife, (Fehrenbacher, 106). Lincoln proved himself when he ran against Douglas in the presidential election of 1860 and won. Lincoln orchestrated the defeat of the Confederacy and the end of slavery apply his political position as president and commander-in-chief, and his cunning as a politician to influence the people of America.It could be argued that the slaves played a more brisk role in securing their freedom than Abraham Lincoln did. The slaves had influentia l leaders such as Harriet Tubman and Frederick Douglass. The Underground Railroadfreed hundreds of slaves, and it was led by a former slave, Harriet Tubman. Frederick Douglass wrote a book about his life as a slave which influenced public views of slavery in the North. He also published an abolitionist newspaper, the North Star. He also showed people that slaves were treated like animals and stripped of the quality that defines humans independent thought. these words sank deep into my heart, stirred up sentiments within that lay slumbering, and called to macrocosm an entirely new train of thought, (Douglass, 20).He told about how he was like other slaves until he learned to read and write, and became a human who was able to create his own destiny. These contributed to raising tensions and starting war, which was a necessary evil for slavery to be abolished and the Union to remain whole. These contributions also put pressure on the government to oppose slavery. Moreover, the 190,000 soldiers, sailors, and laborers who escaped slavery and came to the Union Army contributed greatly to the war effort, fighting valiantly and supporting the Army off the battlefield as well. By the end of the war, these soldiers made up 20 percent of the Union army, as well as influencing public opinion in the North.These were valuable aids to the end of slavery in America, and without them, slavery might not have ended in 1865. However, they are insubstantial compared to the contributions of Abraham Lincoln. First, the emancipation of nearly 200,000 slaves happened because Lincoln had not issued the Emancipation Proclamation and the First and Second Confiscation Acts. He transformed the ideology of a nation when he directed the war at slavery. In analogy with Lincolns monumental tasks, the contributions of slaves are insignificant.In conclusion, Abraham Lincoln was a more important constituent in ending Slavery in America than the slaves themselves because of his contributions as Commander-in-chief to win the Civil War and emancipate the slaves, and he was able to do this because he was an outstanding politician who handled the circumstances with unparalleled capability. Lincoln dealt with the difficult issue of fighting a war in which he could not make many bold decisions for fear of the Border States seceding, and he applied his ability as a politician to lead the Union to victory.Lincoln faced another difficultissue of how to treat escaped slaves during the war, and altered the entire ideology of the war so that the focus was slavery. He did this with his First and Second Confiscation Acts and, most importantly, a well-timed Emancipation Proclamation. Lastly, Lincolns capability as a politician led to concrete actions he took towards ending slavery, including the Emancipation Proclamation, the Thirteenth Amendment, and of course, winning the Civil War, the element without which the end of slavery in America might not have been possible. Lincoln influenced the history of America and (unintentionally) became a martyr. Today, racial discrimination does not exist in US legislation and America is constantly getting closer to complete racial equality.Works CitedAyers, Edward L., Jesus F. De la Teja, Deborah G. White, and Robert D. Schulzinger. American anthem. Ed. Sam Wineburg. Orlando. Fla. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 2009. Civil War Black Soldiers. , Black Soldiers, Robert Gould Shaw, 54th Massachusetts. 2007. Civil War Academy. 24 Jan. 2013 . Douglass, Frederick. Narrative of the life of Frederick Douglass. New York Dover Publications, 1995. Fehrenbacher, Don E. Abraham Lincoln. Stanford Stanford UP, 1964. Goodheart, Adam. How Slavery Really Ended in America. New York Times 3 Oct. 2011 12-15. Halsall, Paul. profits History Sourcebooks. Internet History Sourcebooks. July 1998. Fordham University. 24 Jan. 2013 . Majerol, Veronica. The Emancipation Proclamation. The New York Times Upfront 7 Jan. 2013 24-27. McPherson, James. Who Freed t he Slaves? Drawn With the Sword Reflections on the American Civil War. 1996. 192-207.

Khushwant Singh’s “The Wog” Essay

Khushwant Singhs figment entitled The Wog is a depiction of Indian culture. Indians tradition was merely focused on the religion and cultural composition of their society. Every action must be granted by their Gods. This is symbolization of conservatism and illiteracy not literally but through the emotions and psychological circumstances of the protagonist.In this story, the main slip had a hard epoch thinking of his marriage life. He really does not want to observe marry because according to the Vedas, marriage is the third of all the four levels that they obtained during their lifetime. Sen, the main character felt this kind of scenario that he is not old enough to face a new beginning the third part of his life because it means that his remainder become nearer.However, his bride is the most excited person of all. She loved Sen so much that is why she is willing to accept everything about him. This story also showed how a charwoman was portrayed in the society of India. Man is the manipulator of everything while the woman will abide to her husband and will surrender everything for him.Based on my reasonableness to the text, I have seen that the story made a significant point of view towards the issue of culture, religion, and society in India. It is a depiction of values and personalities that plenty should need to understand in an Indian. In the beginning of the story, Singh thoroughly described the setting through the establishment of the characters. The conflict of the story is that Sen does not want to get married at his age. As a resolution at the end, I have seen that the author resolved the conflict. She lets her character face his fear and agony. She conveyed in her story how a man should be portrayed in the society fearless and masculine.ReferenceSingh, K. The Wog. pp. 293-310

Program Design Essay

Your utmost project leave behind be to analyze, tar beat surface, and document a simple weapons platform that utilizes a good design exhibit and incorporates sequential, selection and repetitive scheduleming statements as well as at least unrivaled function cry (out) and the exercise of at least one order. The specific problem you remove to clobber for the final project is Design a program that provide intromit a exploiter to infix a list of your family fractions along with their board and state where they reside. Determine and ingrain the just age of your family and mark the names of anyone who live in Texas.1. Problem definition Design a program that give allow a drug user to Input a list of your family members along with their age and state where they reside. Determine and print the average age of your family and print the names of anyone who live in Texas. Note Your pseudcode, flow-chart and test cases result be submitted next week.1 a) Write the problem statements as of what is engageed to solve this problem.autonomic nervous system1a)First, I must(prenominal) force a program that depart allow the user to scuttlebutt a list of their family members that impart include their age and state of residence. The program will also compute and print out the average age of the family as well as print out the names of every family member that resides in the state of Texas.1 b) Write your analysis of the problem and the design approaches that you will take to solve this problem.autonomic nervous system 1b)To begin with, I must first identify the input learning. From the problem definition, I gathered that I will have 3 types of input data and they ar Family Members Names, Age, and State of Residence. The output data will consist of the average age of all the members of the family. Also I need an output printout of each family member that reside in Texas. Therefore, in my program I must be able to allow the user to input the information needed to calculate the average age of the family. To compute the output, I needto create a formula that will give us the flush output information.The sideline formula weed be apply to achieve the desired outputAverage Age of Family personifys the total of family members ages dual-lane by the number of family members Family that lives in Texas = Show the names of all family members IF they live in TexasTo begin my design, I need to establish the variables that will control both our input information and output data. For my input data, I will use Name to identify the family members name. Name will be set as String cast data. I will use StateRes to identify the state of residence for each family member. StateRes will also be set as String Array type data. I will use AgeOfMem to recognize the family members age and it will be set as an Integer Array data type. To get all of this information in a table format, I will have to create an array in parliamentary law to display the inp uts and outputs properly. My output variables, they will be AvegAgeFam to identify the Average age of the Family. This data will be set as botch due to the fact that an average number could quite possibly be a decimal value. So to represent the output of showing all family that live in Texas, I will use ResOfTexas as a String data type. Now to answer meet the requirements of this assignment, I must create a function. Im going to create a function that will output the Average age of the Family. Im going to utilize the Count function so we can also total and display how many family members live in Texas. Included will be the names of the function.The following formula will represent our Count function Function AveAge (Age, Total, Count) As FloatSet AveAge = Total / CountWe must include loops in this program. The loops are going to be utilise to prompt the user to enter the information until the user is done. The Count function will be used to help calculate the Average Family Age. T here will also be an IF element added to help the program figure out the family members that live in Texas.1 c) Write the assumptions and limitations and how they will be handled in your project.Ans 1c)In my project, there are numerous assumptions and limitations that are being handled in the pseudo code. First of all, this program is only intentional to calculate the average age of all the family members that the user will input. There is no other calculation that the program has been designed to do. Secondly, the program does not give the user any cream or chance to return to inputting more family members if they forgot to do so at the beginning. This program was not designed to have a set limit to how many inputs the user could enter. This list could keep going on and on. This program is created to calculate and display both the Average age of family Members and the residents who live in Texas. If the user precious to display just one of the results, the user would have to do t he whole program just to get one of the results. This is being handled by the pseudo code only being able to handle the calculations that are set. The user does not have the ability to let the program know how many family members will be entered before the user begins. To handle that, the Count function is being used in the psuedocode to obtain the correct output.1 d) Provide an alternative analysis and design approach showing a different substance to solve the aforesaid(prenominal) problem definition of family member in Texas. As you have learned, a ace problem can be solved in more than one guidance by exploitation different programming ready, by choosing different logics etc. Tell us a different way of solving the same problem.Ans 1d) Now I must come up with an alternate design. I will have to make sure that my even though my design will change, the output of the lord problem must re primary(prenominal) the same. I will also have to keep the same user inputs as well. Takin g a different approach in my pseudocode will make these changes possible.So for my second analysis, the user inputs will remain the same from the original problem. The Family members Age, State, and Name will still beused. However, this m we will build staffs to be able to call up data when needed. We will have to call out subprograms in order to obtain the results we desire.. To begin with, we need to start with a Main module. This module is where the entire program is operated out of. Its also where the user input is entered in. The main module is the run of all of the modules that will be discussed next. I will also create call modules under the main module that will be set up to calculate the average age of the family members and to print out the names of those living in Texas. Next I will create the second module which is the border Module. This module will hold the calculations to compute the average age of all the family members that the user enters. Finally, I will need to build a results module. In this module, the user-entered family names will be used as input data. On the other hand, the output will only be those names of the family who live in Texas. This process will be conducted when we put an a IF statement within the module.Now I will construct my new design. So, just like the design before, I need to declare my variables. The variables will and should be the same due to the fact that the desired output has not changed. Therefore my declared variables will consist of the following withstand Name As String Array, Declare StateRes As StringArray, Declare AgeOfMem As Integer Array, Declare AveAgeFam As Float, Declare ResOfTexas As String, and Declare Count As Integer.Calculations ModuleIn this module, will use the formula that was used earlier in the first design. It is this formula that will compute the average age of the family. The average age will be determined by the sum of all the family members ages divided by the number of family mem ber. Therefore if Count was equal to 2 and AgeOfMem 0 was equal to 16, and Age 1 = 20. So the AveAgeFam was equal to AgeOfMem0 + Age1 divided by Count This would be a total of 16 + 20 / 2 = 18.Finally, I would need to come up with a way for the names of members who live in Texas to be printed out. The psuedocode would use the StateRes arraydata type to search for the user input of Texas. Then, it would display the names associated with that particular element. So if State1 was equal to Texas, then any name such as Name1=James inside the name array would be printed. Therefore, the output would look like this James. This modular design would be an alternate way to spot the same results and output as originally described in the first example. The major pieces of this design consists of the arrays, modules, functions, and the loops. This will provide us with the outputs that are required from the initial questions asked.

Financial Pressure on College Students Essay

Students spend succession with their families and escape their academic worries. However, when students return to campus, they sewer bring back more than they bargained for. Some students feel pressure from their p atomic number 18nts to succeed and returning home reminds them of that pressure. Mickie Wong, 19, a child development major, goes home about once a month. She said upon returning to her home in Temple City, Calif., she feels pressure from her parents about her academics. Wong said her parents sent her to deliberate at a university because they want her to be successful and financially stable. I feel pressured when I go home because my parents lecture me every time they jut out me because they came to America so that their kids can have a better future, said Wong. Wongs parents are immigrants from Vietnam and grew up without the advantages she has now. Because of that, Wong said her parents have high expectations for her academic career.They say that I should be studyin g everyday, expiry to the library, taking full advantage of this wonderful opportunity to go to college, something they didnt have, Wong said. Wong is involved with the fraternity Zeta Phi Rho, and is in good academic standing. However, she said she feels her parents set too high expectations for her academic performance. Thats their method of guilt tripping me. I feel like I should be doing more than I am. I should supply harder, Wong said. Upon returning from home, Wong said she feels motivated to work harder and try to meet her parents high standards. This motivation wanes away though, and she sugar working as much as before. I usually fall back into the same phone number after a few weeks. I dont let out them every weekend so they cant remind me, Wong said. Kishev Navindaran, 19, a mechanical engineering major, goes home to San Diego, Calif., once every louvre weeks.He typically spends a day or two during the weekend with his family and friends. Going home gives Navindaran the witness to reflect on the opportunity his parents gave him and the importance of an education. I jump more home sick when I visit home and it puts everything into perspective, said Navindaran. Navindarans parents express interest in his education by lecture about his studies and his academic standing. He said they motivate him to work harder in school. My parents always tell me to study hard and they ask me how Im doing in school. It motivates me to do better, he said. Navindarans br opposites, who are similarly college students, inspire him by having conversations about each others experiences. They keep tabs on each other to make sure that they are on a path to success.I usually talk to my brothers to see how theyre doing and its more of a motivation for me, Navindaran said. Shaan Cowasjee, 19, undeclared, also lives in San Diego. He goes home to see his family once every four to five weeks. He said he cherishes the time he spends in San Diego with his loved ones because it helps him appreciate them a lot more. Its more of a special and appreciating feeling, said Cowasjee. You get to hang out with family and you appreciate them more, he added. Cowasjee said it is tough on his parents because hes so far away and they cannot ensure that he is putting full effort into his studies. However, he said, he uses this as motivation to work harder in school. My parents tell me to focus more, they feel like Im shrink from because Im not there with them and theyre not motivating me 24/7, Cowasjee said.

Art is an expression Essay

Art to me is an expression. Society has a way of creating hearty norms, and through this influence people to become inspired to be different, to express themselves in many ship canal and to share with others this passion, in the form of art. Cultures fix utilized art in the form of go outings, patterns, and techniques for example the character reference of clothes they wear, and type of houses they live in. Art is everywhere. Albert Einstein once said, you could look at life as if nothings a miracle or as if everything is.I think that you can look at art in the same way. I remember watching a film in class on a man and a woman who were in charge of the community project that consisted of hanging sheets for miles. I have no idea wherefore they would do that over a different art project, but I got their message. It was all about working together, doing something that was unique and of their own works, regardless of everyone elses opinion.They had to fight the system for a while b efore they were able to begin. Thats passion. After the readings I cant alleviate but to agree that art offers us a way to go beyond physical existence. What the author is byword to me is that art in every form changes our values our ideas in an effect change our lives. We are not robots, we dont have to stay within regulations we have the ability to be imaginative. Being creative is the most powerful tool we have some may argue.To touch back on wherefore people make art, I can remember watching movies as a kid and thither was this one kid out of the prep school that did wear the dress uniform to standard corresponding all the other students. He was seeking to be different. Changing your uniform up a critical to be different is art. Indians may paint their faces and their horses differently so that they stand out of all the others so that they can be found and identify.Same cases Indians made art was to distinguish themselves from other tribes as to not killtheir own people du ring a raid or battle. I used to become hard put with school and/or with relationship issues so I started drawing. I never liked being told what to draw and how to do it. I mostly like to begin with lines and later find out it looks like something that was unplanned. The reasons why I draw was take my focus off of life. Sometimes drawing something that makes you happy can help you to recall memories from good experiences and can turn your day around. Art is my tool and is my passion.

Om Heizer Om10 Ism 04

Chapter FORECASTING Discussion Questions 1.? Qualitative clay sculptures incorporate internal factors into the promiseing model. Qualitative models argon useful when subjective factors be important. When quantitative entropy ar hard to obtain, qualitative models may be appropriate. 2.? Approaches argon qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is relatively subjective quantitative uses numerical models. 3.? Short- snip (under 3 months), medium-range (3 months to 3 age), and long-range (over 3 years). 4.? The step that should be used to cook a apprehending system argon (a)?Determine the purpose and use of the enter (b)? Select the item or quantities that argon to be reckoned (c)? Determine the time horizon of the promise (d)? Select the type of forecasting model to be used (e)? Gather the necessary data (f)? Validate the forecasting model (g)? Make the forecast (h)? Implement and tax the results 5.? Any three of sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing various direct plans. 6.? There is no mechanism for growth in these models they be built exclusively from historical charter determines. Such manners will always lag sheers. .? exponential smoothing is a chargeed moving average out where wholly previous values are weighted with a set of weights that dec distribution channel exponenti eachy. 8.? frenzied, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast accuracy. To remember the more(prenominal) faultless forecasting model, forecast with each tool for several period of times where the demand egress is known, and calculate MSE, MAPE, or hallucinating for each. The sm completelyer illusion exhibits the better forecast. 9.? The Delphi technique involves (a)? Assembling a root of experts in much(prenominal) a manner as to preclude direct communication between recognisable members of the group (b)?Assembling the responses of each expert to the questions or problems of interest (c)? meaning upmari zing these responses (d)? Providing each expert with the summary of all responses (e)? Asking each expert to study the summary of the responses and respond again to the questions or problems of interest. (f)? Repeating steps (b) through (e) several times as necessary to obtain convergence in responses. If convergence has not been obtained by the end of the fourth cycle, the responses at that time should probably be accepted and the process completelittle additional convergence is likely if the process is continued. 0.? A time series model predicts on the basis of the assumption that the future is a function of the past, whereas an associative model incorporates into the model the variables of factors that might mould the quantity being forecast. 11.? A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced data points with the four components of effort, seasonality, cyclical, and random variation. 12.? When the smoothing constant, (, is large (close to 1. 0), more weight is given to recent d ata when ( is low (close to 0. 0), more weight is given to past data. 13.? seasonal patterns are of fixed duration and repeat regularly.Cycles vary in length and regularity. Seasonal indices allow generic forecasts to be made specific to the month, week, etcetera , of the application. 14.? exponential smoothing weighs all previous values with a set of weights that decline exponentially. It stop place a full weight on the closely recent period (with an important of 1. 0). This, in effect, is the naive come along, which places all its emphasis on last periods actual demand. 15.? Adaptive forecasting refers to computer monitoring of tracking signals and self- modification if a signal passes its present limit. 16.?Tracking signals alert the user of a forecasting tool to periods in which the forecast was in signifi shagt error. 17.? The correlation coefficient measures the degree to which the independent and dependent variables move together. A negative value would mean that as X increases, Y tends to fall. The variables move together, but move in opposite directions. 18.? mugwump variable (x) is said to explain variations in the dependent variable (y). 19.? Nearly every industry has seasonality. The seasonality essential be filtered out for safe medium-range planning (of production and inventory) and performance evaluation. 20.? There are many examples.Demand for birthday suit materials and component parts such as steel or tires is a function of demand for goods such as automobiles. 21.? Obviously, as we go farther into the future, it becomes more difficult to limit forecasts, and we essential diminish our conviction on the forecasts. Ethical Dilemma This exercise, derived from an actual situation, deals as much with ethics as with forecasting. Here are a few points to consider No one likes a system they dont understand, and around college presidents would feel uncomfortable with this one. It does offer the advantage of depoliticizing the funds al- location if used wisely and fairly.But to do so means all parties must rescue input to the process (such as smoothing constants) and all data conduct to be open to everyone. The smoothing constants could be selected by an agreed-upon criteria (such as lowest MAD) or could be based on input from experts on the board as well as the college. Abuse of the system is tied to assigning alphas based on what results they yield, rather than what alphas make the most sense. retroflection is open to abuse as well. Models can use many years of data yielding one result or few years yielding a totally different forecast.Selection of associative variables can have a major impingement on results as well. Active Model Exercises* active MODEL 4. 1 Moving Averages 1.? What does the graphical recordical record side like when n = 1? The forecast graph mirrors the data graph but one period later. 2.? What happens to the graph as the twist of periods in the moving average increases? The forecast graph becomes shorter and smo different. 3.? What value for n minimizes the MAD for this data? n = 1 (a naive forecast) ACTIVE MODEL 4. 2 Exponential Smoothing 1.? What happens to the graph when alpha equals zero? The graph is a straight line.The forecast is the equivalent in each period. 2.? What happens to the graph when alpha equals one? The forecast follows the same pattern as the demand (except for the first forecast) but is graduation by one period. This is a naive forecast. 3.? Generalize what happens to a forecast as alpha increases. As alpha increases the forecast is more sensitive to changes in demand. *Active Models 4. 1, 4. 2, 4. 3, and 4. 4 appear on our entanglement site, www. pearsonhighered. com/heizer. 4.? At what level of alpha is the mean positive deviation (MAD) minimized? alpha = . 16 ACTIVE MODEL 4. 3 Exponential Smoothing with inclination Adjustment .? Scroll through different values for alpha and beta. Which smoothing constant appears to have the keene r effect on the graph? alpha 2.? With beta set to zero, find the better(p) alpha and observe the MAD. Now find the best beta. Observe the MAD. Does the addition of a trend improve the forecast? alpha = . 11, MAD = 2. 59 beta above . 6 changes the MAD (by a little) to 2. 54. ACTIVE MODEL 4. 4 apparent motion Projections 1.? What is the annual trend in the data? 10. 54 2.? mathematical function the scroll criterions for the slope and intercept to determine the values that minimize the MAD. Are these the same values that regression yields?No, they are not the same values. For example, an intercept of 57. 81 with a slope of 9. 44 yields a MAD of 7. 17. End-of-Chapter Problems pic (b) dull calendar week of Pints Used Moving Average distinguished 31 360 family line 7 389 381 ( . 1 = ? 38. 1 September 14 410 368 ( . 3 = cx. 4 September 21 381 374 ( . 6 = 224. 4 September 28 368 372. October 5 374 depend 372. 9 (c) projecting wrongdoing Week of Pints porten d misunderstanding ( . 20 promise August 31 360 360 0 0 360 September 7 389 360 29 5. 8 365. 8 September 14 410 365. 8 44. 2 8. 84 374. 64 September 21 381 374. 64 6. 36 1. 272 375. 12 September 28 368 375. 912 7. 912 1. 5824 374. 3296 October 5 374 374. 3296 . 3296 . 06592 374. 2636 The forecast is 374. 26. (d)? The three-year moving average appears to give better results. pic pic credulous tracks the ups and downs best but lags the data by one period. Exponential smoothing is probably better because it smoothes the data and does not have as much variation. TEACHING NOTE Notice how well exponential smoothing forecasts the naive. pic (c)? The banking industry has a great deal of seasonality in its processing requirements pic b) Two- course of instruction course of instruction Mileage Moving Average Error Error 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3, cd 3, vitamin D century light speed 4 3,800 3,700 100 100 5 3,700 3,600 100 100 Totals 100 ccc pic 4. 5? (c)? Weighte d 2 year M. A. ith . 6 weight for most recent year. family Mileage Forecast Error Error 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3,400 3,600 two hundred 200 4 3,800 3,640 160 160 5 3,700 3,640 60 60 420 Forecast for year 6 is 3,740 miles. pic 4. 5? (d) Forecast Error ( New Year Mileage Forecast Error ( = . 50 Forecast 1 3,000 3,000 ?0 0 3,000 2 4,000 3,000 1,000 500 3,500 3 3,400 3,500 100 50 3,450 4 3,800 3,450 350 one hundred seventy-five 3,625 5 3,700 3,625 75 ? 38 3,663 Total 1,325 The forecast is 3,663 miles. 4. 6 Y Sales X intent X2 XY January 20 1 1 20 February 21 2 4 42 March 15 3 9 45 April 14 4 16 56 May 13 5 25 65 June 16 6 36 96 July 17 7 49 119 August 18 8 64 144 September 20 9 81 180 October 20 10 100 200 November 21 11 121 231 celestial latitude 23 12 144 276 Sum 18 78 650 1,474 Average ? 18. 2 6. 5 (a) pic (b)? i? NaiveThe coming January = December = 23 ii? 3-month moving (20 + 21 + 23)/3 = 21. 33 iii? 6-month weighted (0. 1 ( 1 7) + (. 1 ( 18) + (0. 1 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 20) + (0. 2 ( 21) + (0. 3 ( 23)/1. 0 = 20. 6 iv? Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0. 3 pic v? Trend? pic pic Forecast = 15. 73? +?. 38(13) = 20. 67, where next January is the 13th month. (c)? single trend provides an equation that can extend beyond one month 4. 7? Present = achievement (week) 6. a) So where pic )If the weights are 20, 15, 15, and 10, there will be no change in the forecast because these are the same relative weights as in part (a), i. e. , 20/60, 15/60, 15/60, and 10/60. c)If the weights are 0. 4, 0. 3, 0. 2, and 0. 1, thus the forecast becomes 56. 3, or 56 patients. pic pic Temperature 2 day M. A. Error(Error)2 strong % Error 93 94 93 93. 5 0. 5 ? 0. 25 100(. 5/93) = 0. 54% 95 93. 5 1. 5 ? 2. 25 100(1. 5/95) = 1. 58% 96 94. 0 2. 0 ? 4. 00 100(2/96) = 2. 08% 88 95. 5 7. 56. 25 100(7. 5/88) = 8. 52% 90 92. 0 2. 0 ? 4. 00 100(2/90) = 2. 22% 13. 5 66. 75 14. 94% MAD = 13. 5/5 = 2. 7 (d)? MSE = 66. 75/5 = 13. 35 (e)? MAPE = 14. 94%/5 = 2. 99% 4. 9? (a, b) The computations for both the two- and three-month averages appear in the table the results appear in the figure below. pic (c)? MAD (two-month moving average) = . 750/10 = . 075 MAD (three-month moving average) = . 793/9 = . 088 Therefore, the two-month moving average seems to have performed better. pic (c)? The forecasts are about the same. pic 4. 12? t sidereal day Actual Forecast Demand Demand 1 Monday 88 88 2 Tuesday 72 88 3 Wednesday 68 84 4 Thursday 48 80 5 Friday 72 ( reaction Ft = Ft1 + ((At1 Ft1) allow ( = . 25. Let Monday forecast demand = 88 F2 = 88 + . 25(88 88) = 88 + 0 = 88 F3 = 88 + . 25(72 88) = 88 4 = 84 F4 = 84 + . 25(68 84) = 84 4 = 80 F5 = 80 + . 25(48 80) = 80 8 = 72 4. 13? (a)? Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 6 Exponential Absolute Year Demand Smoothing ( = 0. aberration 1 45 41 4. 0 2 50 41. 0 + 0. 6(4541) = 43. 4 6. 6 3 52 43. 4 + 0. 6(5043. 4) = 47. 4 4. 6 4 56 47. 4 + 0. 6(5247. 4) = 50. 2 5. 8 5 58 50. 2 + 0. 6(5650. 2) = 53. 7 4. 3 6 ? 53. 7 + 0. 6(5853. 7) = 56. 3 ( = 25. 3 MAD = 5. 06 Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9 Exponential Absolute Year Demand Smoothing ( = 0. exit 1 45 41 4. 0 2 50 41. 0 + 0. 9(4541) = 44. 6 5. 4 3 52 44. 6 + 0. 9(5044. 6 ) = 49. 5 2. 5 4 56 49. 5 + 0. 9(5249. 5) = 51. 8 4. 2 5 58 51. 8 + 0. 9(5651. 8) = 55. 6 2. 4 6 ? 55. 6 + 0. 9(5855. 6) = 57. 8 ( = 18. 5 MAD = 3. 7 (b)? 3-year moving average Three-Year Absolute Year Demand Moving Average deviance 1 45 2 50 3 52 4 56 (45 + 50 + 52)/3 = 49 7 5 58 (50 + 52 + 56)/3 = 52. 7 5. 3 6 ? (52 + 56 + 58)/3 = 55. 3 ( = 12. 3 MAD = 6. 2 (c)? Trend protrusion Absolute Year Demand Trend Projection difference of opinion 1 45 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 1 = 45. 8 0. 8 2 50 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 2 = 49. 0 1. 0 3 52 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 3 = 52. 2 0. 2 4 56 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 4 = 55. 4 0. 5 58 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 5 = 58. 6 0. 6 6 ? 42. 6 + 3. 2 ( 6 = 61. 8 ( = 3. 2 MAD = 0. 64 pic X Y XY X2 1 45 45 1 2 50 100 4 3 52 156 9 4 56 224 16 5 58 290 25 Then (X = 15, (Y = 261, (XY = 815, (X2 = 55, pic= 3, pic= 52. 2 Therefore pic (d)? Comparing the results of the forecasting methodologies for parts (a), (b), and (c). Forecast Methodology MAD Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 5. 06 Exponential smoothing, ( = 0. 9 3. 7 3-year moving average 6. 2 Trend projection 0. 64 Based on a mean absolute deviation criterion, the trend projection is to be preferred over the exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 6, exponential smoothing with ( = 0. 9, or the 3-year moving average forecast methodologies. 4. 14 Method 1MAD (0. 20 + 0. 05 + 0. 05 + 0. 20)/4 = . 125 ( better MSE (0. 04 + 0. 0025 + 0. 0025 + 0. 04)/4 = . 021 Method 2MAD (0. 1 + 0. 20 + 0. 10 + 0. 11) / 4 = . 1275 MSE (0. 01 + 0. 04 + 0. 01 + 0. 0121) / 4 = . 018 ( better 4. 15 Forecast Three-Year Absolute Year Sales Moving Average Deviation 2005 450 2006 495 2007 518 20 08 563 (450 + 495 + 518)/3 = 487. 7 75. 3 2009 584 (495 + 518 + 563)/3 = 525. 3 58. 7 2010 (518 + 563 + 584)/3 = 555. 0 ( = 134 MAD = 67 4. 16 Year Time Period X Sales Y X2 XY 2005 1 450 1 450 2006 2 495 4 990 2007 3 518 9 1554 2008 4 563 16 2252 2009 5 584 25 2920 ( = 2610 ( = 55 ( = 8166 pic pic Year Sales Forecast Trend Absolute Deviation 2005 450 454. 8 4. 8 2006 495 488. 4 6. 2007 518 522. 0 4. 0 2008 563 555. 6 7. 4 2009 584 589. 2 5. 2 2010 622. 8 ( = 28 MAD = 5. 6 4. 17 Forecast Exponential Absolute Year Sales Smoothing ( = 0. 6 Deviation 2005 450 410. 0 40. 2006 495 410 + 0. 6(450 410) = 434. 0 61. 0 2007 518 434 + 0. 6(495 434) = 470. 6 47. 4 2008 563 470. 6 + 0. 6(518 470. 6) = 499. 0 64. 0 2009 584 499 + 0. 6(563 499) = 537. 4 46. 6 2010 537. 4 + 0. 6(584 537. 4) = 565. 6 ( = 259 MAD = 51. 8 Forecast Exponential Absolute Year Sales Smoothing ( = 0. Deviation 2005 450 410. 0 40. 0 2006 495 410 + 0 . 9(450 410) = 446. 0 49. 0 2007 518 446 + 0. 9(495 446) = 490. 1 27. 9 2008 563 490. 1 + 0. 9(518 490. 1) = 515. 2 47. 8 2009 584 515. 2 + 0. 9(563 515. 2) = 558. 2 25. 8 2010 558. 2 + 0. 9(584 558. 2) = 581. 4 ( = 190. 5 MAD = 38. 1 (Refer to Solved Problem 4. 1)For ( = 0. 3, absolute deviations for 20052009 are 40. 0, 73. 0, 74. 1, 96. 9, 88. 8, respectively. So the MAD = 372. 8/5 = 74. 6. pic Because it gives the lowest MAD, the smoothing constant of ( = 0. 9 gives the most accurate forecast. 4. 18? We remove to find the smoothing constant (. We know in general that Ft = Ft1 + ((At1 Ft1) t = 2, 3, 4. Choose either t = 3 or t = 4 (t = 2 wont let us find ( because F2 = 50 = 50 + ((50 50) holds for any (). Lets pick t = 3. Then F3 = 48 = 50 + ((42 50) or 48 = 50 + 42( 50( or 2 = 8( So, . 25 = ( Now we can find F5 F5 = 50 + ((46 50)F5 = 50 + 46( 50( = 50 4( For ( = . 25, F5 = 50 4(. 25) = 49 The forecast for time period 5 = 49 units. 4. 19? Trend set exp onential smoothing ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 2 Unadjusted Adjusted Month Income Forecast Trend Forecast ErrorError2 February 70. 0 65. 0 0. 0 65 ? 5. 0 ? 25. 0 March 68. 5 65. 5 0. 1 65. 6 ? 2. 9 ? 8. 4 April 64. 8 65. 9 0. 16 66. 05 ? 1. 2 ? 1. 6 May 71. 7 65. 92 0. 13 66. 06 ? 5. 6 ? 31. 9 June 71. 66. 62 0. 25 66. 87 ? 4. 4 ? 19. 7 July 72. 8 67. 31 0. 33 67. 64 ? 5. 2 ? 26. 6 August 68. 16 68. 60 24. 3 113. 2 MAD = 24. 3/6 = 4. 05, MSE = 113. 2/6 = 18. 87. Note that all numbers are rounded. Note To use POM for Windows to net this problem, a period 0, which contains the initial forecast and initial trend, must be added. 4. 20? Trend adjusted exponential smoothing ( = 0. 1, ( = 0. 8 pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic pic 4. 23? Students must determine the naive forecast for the four months.The naive forecast for March is the February actual of 83, etc. (a) Actual Forecast Error % Error March ci great hundred 19 100 (19/101) = 18. 81% April ? 96 114 18 100 (18/96) ? = 18. 75% May ? 89 cx 21 100 (21/89) ? = 23. 60% June 108 108 ? 0 100 (0/108) ? = 0% 58 61. 16% pic (b) Actual Naive Error % Error March 101 ? 83 18 100 (18/101) = 17. 82% April ? 96 101 ? 100 (5/96) ? = 5. 21% May ? 89 ? 96 ? 7 100 (7/89) ? =? 7. 87% June 108 ? 89 19 100 (19/108) = 17. 59% 49 48. 49% pic Naive outperforms management. (c)? MAD for the managers technique is 14. 5, spell MAD for the naive forecast is only 12. 25. MAPEs are 15. 29% and 12. 12%, respectively. So the naive method is better. 4. 24? (a)? Graph of demand The observations obviously do not form a straight line but do tend to cluster about a straight line over the range shown. (b)? Least-squares regression pic Assume Appearances X Demand Y X2 Y2 XY 3 3 9 9 9 4 6 16 36 24 7 7 49 49 49 6 5 36 25 30 8 10 64 100 80 5 7 25 49 35 9 ? (X = 33, (Y = 38, (XY = 227, (X2 = 199, pic= 5. 5, pic= 6. 33. Therefore pic The following figure sho ws both the data and the resulting equation pic (c) If there are nine performances by Stone Temple Pilots, the prognosticated sales are (d) R = . 82 is the correlation coefficient, and R2 = . 68 means 68% of the variation in sales can be explained by TV appearances. 4. 25? Number of Accidents Month (y) x xy x2 January 30 1 30 1 February 40 2 80 4 March 60 3 180 9 April 90 4 360 16 ? Totals 220 pic The regression line is y = 5 + 20x. The forecast for May (x = 5) is y = 5 + 20(5) = one hundred five. 4. 26 Season Year1 Year2 Average Average Seasonal Year3 Demand Demand Year1(Year2 Season major power Demand Demand Demand Fall 200 250 225. 0 250 0. 90 270 Winter 350 300 325. 250 1. 30 390 Spring 150 165 157. 5 250 0. 63 189 Summer 300 285 292. 5 250 1. 17 351 4. 27 Winter Spring Summer Fall 2006 1,400 1,500 1,000 600 2007 1,200 1,400 2,100 750 2008 1,000 1,600 2,000 650 2009 900 1,500 1,900 500 4,500 6,000 7,000 2,500 4. 28 Av erage Average Quarterly Seasonal Quarter 2007 2008 2009 Demand Demand Index Winter 73 65 89 75. 67 106. 67 0. 709 Spring 104 82 146 110. 67 106. 67 1. 037 Summer 168 124 205 165. 67 106. 67 1. 553 Fall 74 52 98 74. 67 106. 67 0. 700 4. 29? 2011 is 25 years beyond 1986. Therefore, the 2011 quarter numbers are 101 through 104. (5) (2) (3) (4) Adjusted (1) Quarter Forecast Seasonal Forecast Quarter Number (77 + . 3Q) portion (3) ( (4) Winter 101 great hundred. 43 . 8 96. 344 Spring 102 120. 86 1. 1 132. 946 Summer 103 121. 29 1. 4 169. 806 Fall 104 121. 72 . 7 85. 204 4. 30? give Y = 36 + 4. 3X (a) Y = 36 + 4. 3(70) = 337 (b) Y = 36 + 4. 3(80) = 380 (c) Y = 36 + 4. 3(90) = 423 4. 31 4. 33? (a)? See the table below. For next year (x = 6), the number of transistors (in millions) is forecasted as y = 126 + 18(6) = 126 + 108 = 234. Then y = a + bx, where y = number sold, x = equipment casualty, and 4. 32? a) x y xy x2 16 330 5,280 256 12 270 3,240 144 18 380 6,840 324 14 300 4,200 196 60 1,280 19,560 920 So at x = 2. 80, y = 1,454. 6 277. 6($2. 80) = 677. 32. Now round to the nearest integer Answer 677 lattes. pic (b)? If the forecast is for 20 guests, the bar sales forecast is 50 + 18(20) = $410. Each guest accounts for an additional $18 in bar sales. Table for Problem 4. 33 Year Transistors (x) (y) xy x2 126 + 18x Error Error2 % Error ? 1 140 ? 140 ? 1 144 4 ? 16 100 (4/140)? = 2. 86% ? 2 160 ? 320 ? 4 162 2 4 100 (2/160)? = 1. 25% ? 3 190 ? 570 ? 9 180 10 100 100 (10/190) = 5. 26% ? 4 200 ? 800 16 198 ? 2 4 100 (2/200) = 1. 00% ? 210 1,050 25 216 6 ? 36 100 (6/210)? = 2. 86% Totals 15 900 2,800 (b)? MSE = 160/5 = 32 (c)? MAPE = 13. 23%/5 = 2. 65% 4. 34? Y = 7. 5 + 3. 5X1 + 4. 5X2 + 2. 5X3 (a)? 28 (b)? 43 (c)? 58 4. 35? (a)? pic = 13,473 + 37. 65(1860) = 83,502 (b)? The predicted change price is $83,502, but this is the average price for a house of this size. There a re other factors besides square footage that will impact the selling price of a house. If such a house sold for $95,000, accordingly these other factors could be bring to the additional value. (c)?Some other quantitative variables would be age of the house, number of bedrooms, size of the lot, and size of the garage, etc. (d)? Coefficient of determination = (0. 63)2 = 0. 397. This means that only about 39. 7% of the variability in the sales price of a house is explained by this regression model that only includes square footage as the explanatory variable. 4. 36? (a)? precondition Y = 90 + 48. 5X1 + 0. 4X2 where pic If Number of days on the road ( X1 = 5 and distance operateed ( X2 = 300 then Y = 90 + 48. 5 ( 5 + 0. 4 ( 300 = 90 + 242. 5 + 120 = 452. 5 Therefore, the expected cost of the trip is $452. 50. (b)? The reimbursement request is much higher than predicted by the model. This request should probably be questioned by the accountant. (c)?A number of other variables should be included, such as 1.? the type of travel (air or car) 2.? conference fees, if any 3.? costs of entertaining customers 4.? other transportation costscab, limousine, special tolls, or parking In addition, the correlation coefficient of 0. 68 is not exceptionally high. It indicates that the model explains approximately 46% of the general variation in trip cost. This correlation coefficient would suggest that the model is not a particularly good one. 4. 37? (a, b) Period Demand Forecast Error Running sum error 1 20 20 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2 21 20 1. 00 1. 0 1. 00 3 28 20. 5 7. 50 8. 50 7. 50 4 37 24. 25 12. 75 21. 25 12. 75 5 25 30. 63 5. 63 15. 63 5. 63 6 29 27. 81 1. 19 16. 82 1. 19 7 36 28. 41 7. 59 24. 41 7. 59 8 22 32. 20 10. 20 14. 21 10. 20 9 25 27. 11 2. 10 12. 10 2. 10 10 28 26. 05 1. 95 14. 05 1. 95 MADpic5. 00 Cumulative error = 14. 05 MAD = 5? Tracking = 14. 05/5 ( 2. 82 4. 38? (a)? to the lowest degree squares equation Y = 0. 158 + 0. 1308X (b)? Y = 0. 158 + 0. 1308(22) = 2. 719 million (c)? coefficient of correlation = r = 0. 966 coefficient of determination = r2 = 0. 934 4. 39 Year X Patients Y X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 36 1 ? 1,296 36 ? 2 ? 33 ? 1,089 66 ? 3 ? 40 9 ? 1,600 ? 120 ? 4 ? 41 ? 16 ? 1,681 ? 164 ? 5 ? 40 ? 25 ? 1,600 ? 200 ? 6 ? 55 ? 36 ? 3,025 ? 330 ? 7 ? 60 ? 49 ? 3,600 ? 420 ? 8 ? 54 ? 64 ? 2,916 ? 432 ? 9 ? 58 ? 81 ? 3,364 ? 522 10 ? 61 100 ? 3,721 ? 10 55 478 X Y Forecast Deviation Deviation ? 1 36 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 1 = 33. 1 ? 2. 9 2. 9 ? 2 33 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 2 = 36. 3 3. 3 3. 3 ? 3 40 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 3 = 39. 6 ? 0. 4 0. 4 ? 4 41 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 4 = 42. 9 1. 9 1. 9 ? 5 40 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 5 = 46. 2 6. 2 6. 2 ? 6 55 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 6 = 49. 4 ? 5. 6 5. 6 ? 7 60 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 7 = 52. 7 ? 7. 3 7. 3 ? 54 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 8 = 56. 1 2. 1 2. 1 ? 9 58 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( ? 9 = 59. 3 1. 3 1. 3 10 61 29. 8 + 3. 28 ( 10 = 62. 6 1. 6 1. 6 ( = 32. 6 MAD = 3. 26 The MAD is 3. 26this is approximately 7% of the average number of patients and 10% of the minimum number of patients. We also see absolute deviations, for years 5, 6, and 7 in the range 5. 67. 3.The comparison of the MAD with the average and minimum number of patients and the comparatively large deviations during the middle years indicate that the forecast model is not exceptionally accurate. It is more useful for predicting general trends than the actual number of patients to be seen in a specific year. 4. 40 Crime Patients Year Rate X Y X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 58. 3 ? 36 ? 3,398. 9 ? 1,296 ? 2,098. 8 ? 2 ? 61. 1 ? 33 ? 3,733. 2 ? 1,089 ? 2,016. 3 ? 3 ? 73. ? 40 ? 5,387. 6 ? 1,600 ? 2,936. 0 ? 4 ? 75. 7 ? 41 ? 5,730. 5 ? 1,681 ? 3,103. 7 ? 5 ? 81. 1 ? 40 ? 6,577. 2 ? 1,600 ? 3,244. 0 ? 6 ? 89. 0 ? 55 ? 7,921. 0 ? 3,025 ? 4,895. 0 ? 7 101. 1 ? 60 10,221. 2 ? 3,600 ? 6,066. 0 ? 8 ? 94. 8 ? 54 ? 8,987. 0 ? 2,916 ? 5,119. 2 ? 9 103. 3 ? 58 10,670. 9 ? 3,364 ? 5,991. 4 10 116 . 2 ? 61 13,502. 4 ? 3,721 ? 7,088. 2 Column 854. 478 Totals months) (Millions) (1,000,000s) Year (X) (Y) X2 Y2 XY ? 1 ? 7 1. 5 ? 49 ? 2. 25 10. 5 ? 2 ? 2 1. 0 4 ? 1. 00 ? 2. 0 ? 3 ? 6 1. 3 ? 36 ? 1. 69 ? 7. 8 ? 4 ? 4 1. 5 ? 16 ? 2. 25 ? 6. 0 ? 5 14 2. 5 196 ? 6. 25 35. 0 ? 6 15 2. 7 225 ? 7. 9 40. 5 ? 7 16 2. 4 256 ? 5. 76 38. 4 ? 8 12 2. 0 144 ? 4. 00 24. 0 ? 9 14 2. 7 196 ? 7. 29 37. 8 10 20 4. 4 400 19. 36 88. 0 11 15 3. 4 225 11. 56 51. 0 12 ? 7 1. 7 ? 49 ? 2. 89 11. 9 Given Y = a + bX where pic and (X = 132, (Y = 27. 1, (XY = 352. 9, (X2 = 1796, (Y2 = 71. 59, pic = 11, pic= 2. 26. Then pic andY = 0. 511 + 0. 159X (c)?Given a tourist population of 10,000,000, the model predicts a ridership of Y = 0. 511 + 0. 159 ( 10 = 2. 101, or 2,101,000 persons. (d)? If there are no tourists at all, the model predicts a ridership of 0. 511, or 511,000 persons. One would not place much cartel in this forecast, however, because the number of tourists (zero) is out side the range of data used to develop the model. (e)? The standard error of the estimate is given by (f)? The correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination are given by pic 4. 42? (a)? This problem gives students a chance to tackle a realistic problem in business, i. e. , not enough data to make a good forecast.As can be seen in the accompanying figure, the data contains both seasonal and trend factors. pic Averaging methods are not appropriate with trend, seasonal, or other patterns in the data. Moving averages smooth out seasonality. Exponential smoothing can forecast January next year, but not farther. Because seasonality is strong, a naive model that students create on their own might be best. (b) One model might be Ft+1 = At11 That is forecastnext period = actualone year earlier to account for seasonality. But this ignores the trend. One very good approach would be to calculate the increase from each month last year to each month this year, sum all 12 increases, and divide by 12.The forecast for next year would equal the value for the same month this year plus the average increase over the 12 months of last year. (c) Using this model, the January forecast for next year becomes pic where 148 = total monthly increases from last year to this year. The forecasts for each of the months of next year then become Jan. 29 July. 56 Feb. 26 Aug. 53 Mar. 32 Sep. 45 Apr. 35 Oct. 35 May. 42 Nov. 38 Jun. 50 Dec. 29 Both history and forecast for the next year are shown in the accompanying figure pic 4. 3? (a) and (b) See the following table Actual Smoothed Smoothed Week Value Value Forecast Value Forecast t A(t) Ft (( = 0. 2) Error Ft (( = 0. 6)Error 1 50 +50. 0 ? +0. 0 +50. 0 ? +0. 0 2 35 +50. 0 15. 0 +50. 0 15. 0 3 25 +47. 0 22. 0 +41. 0 16. 0 4 40 +42. 6 ? 2. 6 +31. 4 ? +8. 6 5 45 +42. 1 ? 2. 9 +36. 6 ? +8. 6 35 +42. 7 ? 7. 7 +41. 6 ? 6. 6 7 20 +41. 1 21. 1 +37. 6 17. 6 8 30 +36. 9 ? 6. 9 +27. 1 ? +2. 9 9 35 +35. 5 ? 0. 5 +28. 8 ? +6. 2 10 20 +35. 4 15. 4 +32. 5 12. 5 11 15 +32. 3 17. 3 +25. 0 10. 0 12 40 +28. 9 +11. 1 +19. 0 +21. 0 13 55 +31. 1 +23. 9 +31. 6 +23. 4 14 35 +35. 9 ? 0. 9 +45. 6 10. 6 15 25 +36. 7 10. 7 +39. 3 14. 3 16 55 +33. 6 +21. 4 +30. 7 +24. 3 17 55 +37. 8 +17. 2 +45. 3 ? +9. 7 18 40 +41. 3 ? 1. 3 +51. 1 11. 1 19 35 +41. 0 ? 6. 0 +44. 4 ? 9. 4 20 60 +39. 8 +20. 2 +38. 8 +21. 2 21 75 +43. 9 +31. 1 +51. 5 +23. 5 22 50 +50. 1 ? 0. 1 +65. 6 15. 23 40 +50. 1 10. 1 +56. 2 16. 2 24 65 +48. 1 +16. 9 +46. 5 +18. 5 25 +51. 4 +57. 6 MAD = 11. 8 MAD = 13. 45 (c)? Students should mention how stable the smoothed values are for ( = 0. 2. When compared to actual week 25 calls of 85, the smoothing constant, ( = 0. 6, appears to do a somewhat better job. On the basis of the standard error of the estimate and the MAD, the 0. 2 constant is better. However, other smoothing constants need to be examined. 4. 4 Week Actual Value Smoothed Value Trend Estimate Forecast F orecast t At Ft (( = 0. 3) Tt (( = 0. 2) FITt Error ? 1 50. 000 50. 000 ? 0. 000 50. 000 0. 000 ? 2 35. 000 50. 000 ? 0. 000 50. 000 15. 000 ? 3 25. 000 45. 500 0. 900 44. 600 19. 600 ? 4 40. 000 38. 720 2. 076 36. 644 3. 56 ? 5 45. 000 37. 651 1. 875 35. 776 9. 224 ? 6 35. 000 38. 543 1. 321 37. 222 ? 2. 222 ? 7 20. 000 36. 555 1. 455 35. 101 15. 101 ? 8 30. 000 30. 571 2. 361 28. 210 1. 790 ? 9 35. 000 28. 747 2. 253 26. 494 8. 506 10 20. 000 29. 046 1. 743 27. 03 ? 7. 303 11 15. 000 25. 112 2. 181 22. 931 ? 7. 931 12 40. 000 20. 552 2. 657 17. 895 ? 22. 105 13 55. 000 24. 526 1. 331 23. 196 ? 31. 804 14 35. 000 32. 737 ? 0. 578 33. 315 1. 685 15 25. 000 33. 820 ? 0. 679 34. 499 ? 9. 499 16 55. 000 31. 649 ? 0. 109 31. 58 ? 23. 242 17 55. 000 38. 731 ? 1. 503 40. 234 ? 14. 766 18 40. 000 44. 664 ? 2. 389 47. 053 ? 7. 053 19 35. 000 44. 937 ? 1. 966 46. 903 11. 903 20 60. 000 43. 332 ? 1. 252 44. 584 ? 15. 416 21 75. 000 49. 209 ? 2. 177 51. 386 ? 23. 61 4 22 50. 000 58. 470 ? 3. 94 62. 064 12. 064 23 40. 000 58. 445 ? 2. 870 61. 315 21. 315 24 65. 000 54. 920 ? 1. 591 56. 511 8. 489 25 59. 058 ? 2. 100 61. 158 To evaluate the trend adjusted exponential smoothing model, actual week 25 calls are compared to the forecasted value. The model appears to be producing a forecast approximately mid-range between that given by simple exponential smoothing using ( = 0. 2 and ( = 0. 6.Trend adjustment does not appear to give any significant improvement. 4. 45 Month At Ft At Ft (At Ft) May 100 100 0 0 June 80 104 24 24 July 110 99 11 11 August 115 101 14 14 September 105 104 1 1 October 110 104 6 6 November 125 105 20 20 December 120 109 11 11 Sum 87 Sum 39 4. 46 (a) X Y X2 Y2 XY ? 421 ? 2. 90 ? 177241 8. 41 ? 1220. 9 ? 377 ? 2. 93 ? 142129 8. 58 ? 1104. 6 ? 585 ? 3. 00 ? 342225 9. 00 ? 1755. 0 ? 690 ? 3. 45 ? 476100 ? 11. 90 ? 2380. 5 ? 608 ? 3. 66 ? 369664 ? 13. 40 ? 2225. 3 ? 390 ? 2. 88 ? 52100 8. 29 ? 1123. 2 ? 415 ? 2. 15 ? 172225 4. 62 892. 3 ? 481 ? 2. 53 ? 231361 6. 40 ? 1216. 9 ? 729 ? 3. 22 ? 531441 ? 10. 37 ? 2347. 4 ? 501 ? 1. 99 ? 251001 3. 96 997. 0 ? 613 ? 2. 75 ? 375769 7. 56 ? 1685. 8 ? 709 ? 3. 90 ? 502681 ? 15. 21 ? 2765. 1 ? 366 ? 1. 60 ? 133956 2. 56 585. 6 Column 6885 36. 6 totals January 400 February 380 400 20. 0 March 410 398 12. 0 April 375 399. 2 396. 67 24. 2 21. 67 May 405 396. 8 388. 33 8. 22 16. 67 MAD = 16. 11 19. 17 (d)Note that Amit has more forecast observations, while Barbaras moving average does not start until month 4. Also note that the MAD for Amit is an average of 4 numbers, while Barbaras is only 2. Amits MAD for exponential smoothing (16. 1) is lower than that of Barbaras moving average (19. 17). So his forecast seems to be better. 4. 48? (a) Quarter Contracts X Sales Y X2 Y2 XY 1 ? 153 ? 8 ? 23,409 ? 64 ? 1,224 2 ? 172 10 ? 29,584 100 ? 1,720 3 ? 197 15 ? 38,809 225 ? 2,955 4 ? 178 ? 9 ? 31,684 ? 81 ? 1,602 5 ? 185 12 ? 34,225 144 ? 2,220 6 ? 199 13 ? 39,601 169 ? 2,587 7 ? 205 12 ? 42,025 144 ? ,460 8 ? 226 16 ? 51,076 256 ? 3,616 Totals 1,515 95 b = (18384 8 ( 189. 375 ( 11. 875)/(290,413 8 ( 189. 375 ( 189. 375) = 0. 1121 a = 11. 875 0. 1121 ( 189. 375 = 9. 3495 Sales ( y) = 9. 349 + 0. 1121 (Contracts) (b) pic 4. 49? (a) Method ( Exponential Smoothing 0. 6 = ( Year Deposits (Y) Forecast Error Error2 1 ? 0. 25 0. 25 0. 00 ? 0. 00 2 ? . 24 0. 25 0. 01 ? 0. 0001 3 ? 0. 24 0. 244 0. 004 ? 0. 0000 4 ? 0. 26 0. 241 0. 018 ? 0. 0003 5 ? 0. 25 0. 252 0. 002 ? 0. 00 6 ? 0. 30 0. 251 0. 048 ? 0. 0023 7 ? 0. 31 0. 280 0. 029 ? 0. 0008 8 ? 0. 32 0. 298 0. 021 ? 0. 0004 9 ? 0. 24 0. 311 0. 071 ? 0. 0051 10 ? 0. 26 0. 68 0. 008 ? 0. 0000 11 ? 0. 25 0. 263 0. 013 ? 0. 0002 12 ? 0. 33 0. 255 0. 074 ? 0. 0055 13 ? 0. 50 0. 300 0. 199 ? 0. 0399 14 ? 0. 95 0. 420 0. 529 ? 0. 2808 15 ? 1. 70 0. 738 0. 961 ? 0. 925 16 ? 2. 3 0 1. 315 0. 984 ? 0. 9698 17 ? 2. 80 1. 906 0. 893 ? 0. 7990 18 ? 2. 80 2. 442 0. 357 ? 0. 278 19 ? 2. 70 2. 656 0. 043 ? 0. 0018 20 ? 3. 90 2. 682 1. 217 ? 1. 4816 21 ? 4. 90 3. 413 1. 486 ? 2. 2108 22 ? 5. 30 4. 305 0. 994 ? 0. 9895 23 ? 6. 20 4. 90 1. 297 ? 1. 6845 24 ? 4. 10 5. 680 1. 580 ? 2. 499 25 ? 4. 50 4. 732 0. 232 ? 0. 0540 26 ? 6. 10 4. 592 1. 507 ? 2. 2712 27 ? 7. 0 5. 497 2. 202 ? 4. 8524 28 10. 10 6. 818 3. 281 10. 7658 29 15. 20 8. 787 6. 412 41. 1195 (Continued) 4. 49? (a)? (Continued) Method ( Exponential Smoothing 0. 6 = ( Year Deposits (Y) Forecast Error Error2 30 ? 18. 10 12. 6350 5. 46498 29. 8660 31 ? 24. 10 15. 9140 8. 19 67. 01 32 ? 25. 0 20. 8256 4. 774 22. 7949 33 ? 30. 30 23. 69 6. 60976 43. 69 34 ? 36. 00 27. 6561 8. 34390 69. 62 35 ? 31. 10 32. 6624 1. 56244 2. 44121 36 ? 31. 70 31. 72 0. 024975 0. 000624 37 ? 38. 50 31. 71 6. 79 ? 46. 1042 38 ? 47. 90 35. 784 12. 116 146. 798 39 ? 49. 10 43. 0536 6. 046 36. 56 40 ? 55. 80 46. 814 9. 11856 83. 1481 41 ? 70. 10 52. 1526 17. 9474 322. 11 42 ? 70. 90 62. 9210 7. 97897 63. 66 43 ? 79. 10 67. 7084 11. 3916 129. 768 44 ? 94. 00 74. 5434 19. 4566 378. 561 TOTALS 787. 30 150. 3 1,513. 22 AVERAGE 17. 8932 3. 416 34. 39 (MAD) (MSE) Next period forecast = 86. 2173 Standard error = 6. 07519 Method ( Linear Regression (Trend Analysis) Year Period (X) Deposits (Y) Forecast Error2 ? 1 ? 1 0. 25 17. 330 309. 061 ? 2 ? 2 0. 24 15. 692 253. 823 ? 3 ? 3 0. 24 14. 054 204. 31 ? 4 ? 4 0. 26 12. 415 160. 662 ? 5 ? 5 0. 25 10. 777 121. 594 ? 6 ? 6 0. 30 ? 9. 1387 89. 0883 ? 7 ? 7 0. 31 ? 7. 50 61. 0019 ? 8 ? 8 0. 32 ? 5. 8621 38. 2181 ? ? 9 0. 24 ? 4. 2238 19. 9254 10 10 0. 26 ? 2. 5855 8. 09681 11 11 0. 25 ? 0. 947 1. 43328 12 12 0. 33 ? 0. 691098 0. 130392 13 13 0. 50 ? 2. 329 3. 34667 14 14 0. 95 ? 3. 96769 9. 10642 15 15 1. 70 ? 5. 60598 15. 2567 16 16 2. 30 ? 7. 24427 24. 4458 17 17 2. 0 ? 8. 88257 36. 9976 18 18 2. 80 ? 10. 52 59. 6117 19 19 2. 70 ? 12. 1592 89. 4756 20 20 3. 90 ? 13. 7974 97. 9594 21 21 4. 90 ? 15. 4357 111. 0 22 22 5. 30 ? 17. 0740 138. 628 23 23 6. 20 ? 18. 7123 156. 558 24 24 4. 10 ? 20. 35 264. 083 25 25 4. 50 ? 21. 99 305. 62 26 26 6. 10 ? 23. 6272 307. 203 27 27 7. 70 ? 25. 2655 308. 547 28 28 10. 10 ? 26. 9038 282. 367 29 29 15. 20 ? 28. 5421 178. 011 30 30 18. 10 ? 30. 18 145. 936 31 31 24. 10 ? 31. 8187 59. 58 32 32 25. 60 ? 33. 46 61. 73 33 33 30. 30 ? 35. 0953 22. 9945 34 34 36. 0 ? 36. 7336 0. 5381 35 35 31. 10 ? 38. 3718 52. 8798 36 36 31. 70 ? 40. 01 69. 0585 37 37 38. 50 ? 41. 6484 9. 91266 38 38 47. 90 ? 43. 2867 21. 2823 39 39 49. 10 ? 44. 9250 17. 43 40 40 55. 80 ? 46. 5633 ? ? 85. 3163 41 41 70. 10 ? 48. 2016 ? 479. 54 42 42 70. 90 ? 49. 84 ? 443. 28 43 43 79. 10 ? 51. 4782 ? 762. 964 44 44 94. 00 ? 53. 1165 1,671. 46 TOTALS 990. 00 787. 30 7,559. 95 AVERAGE 22. 50 17. 893 171. 817 (MSE) Method ( Least squaresSimple Regression on GSP a b 17. 636 13. 936 Coefficients GSP Deposits Year (X) (Y) Forecast Error Error2 ? 1 0. 40 ? 0. 25 12. 198 ? 12. 4482 ? 154. 957 ? 2 0. 40 ? 0. 24 12. 198 ? 12. 4382 ? 154. 71 ? 3 0. 50 ? 0. 24 10. 839 ? 11. 0788 ? 122. 740 ? 4 0. 70 ? 0. 26 8. 12 8. 38 70. 226 ? 5 0. 90 ? 0. 25 5. 4014 5. 65137 31. 94 ? 6 1. 00 ? 0. 30 4. 0420 4. 342 18. 8530 ? 7 1. 40 ? 0. 31 ? 1. 39545 1. 08545 1. 17820 ? 8 1. 70 ? 0. 32 ? 5. 47354 5. 5354 26. 56 ? 9 1. 30 ? 0. 24 ? 0. 036086 0. 203914 0. 041581 10 1. 20 ? 0. 26 1. 3233 1. 58328 2. 50676 11 1. 10 ? 0. 25 2. 6826 2. 93264 8. 60038 12 0. 90 ? 0. 33 5. 4014 5. 73137 32. 8486 13 1. 20 ? 0. 50 1. 3233 1. 82328 3. 32434 14 1. 20 ? 0. 95 1. 3233 2. 27328 5. 16779 15 1. 20 ? 1. 70 1. 3233 3. 02328 9. 14020 16 1. 60 ? 2. 30 ? 4. 11418 1. 81418 3. 9124 17 1. 50 ? 2. 80 ? 2. 75481 0. 045186 0. 002042 18 1. 60 ? 2. 80 ? 4. 11418 1. 31418 1. 727 19 1. 70 ? 2. 70 ? 5. 47354 2. 77354 7. 69253 20 1. 90 ? 3. 90 ? 8. 19227 4. 29227 18. 4236 21 1. 90 ? 4. 90 ? 8. 19227 3. 29227 10. 8390 22 2. 30 ? 5. 30 13. 6297 8. 32972 69. 3843 23 2. 50 ? 6. 20 16. 3484 ? 10. 1484 ? 102. 991 24 2. 80 ? 4. 10 20. 4265 ? 16. 3265 ? 266. 56 25 2. 90 ? 4. 50 21. 79 ? 17. 29 ? 298. 80 26 3. 40 ? 6. 10 28. 5827 ? 22. 4827 ? 505. 473 27 3. 80 ? 7. 70 34. 02 ? 26. 32 ? 692. 752 28 4. 10 10. 10 38. 0983 ? 27. 9983 ? 783. 90 29 4. 00 15. 20 36. 74 ? 21. 54 ? 463. 924 30 4. 00 18. 10 36. 74 ? 18. 64 ? 347. 41 31 3. 90 24. 10 35. 3795 ? 11. 2795 ? 127. 228 32 3. 80 25. 60 34. 02 8. 42018 70. 8994 33 3. 0 30. 30 34. 02 3. 72018 13. 8397 34 3. 70 36. 00 32. 66 3. 33918 11. 15 35 4. 10 31. 10 38. 0983 6. 99827 48. 9757 36 4. 10 31. 70 38. 0983 6. 39827 ? 40. 9378 37 4. 00 38. 50 36. 74 1. 76 3. 10146 38 4. 50 47. 90 43. 5357 4. 36428 19. 05 39 4. 60 49. 10 44. 8951 4. 20491 17. 6813 40 4. 50 55. 80 43. 5357 ? 12. 2643 ? 150. 4 12 41 4. 60 70. 10 44. 951 ? 25. 20 ? 635. 288 42 4. 60 70. 90 44. 8951 ? 26. 00 ? 676. 256 43 4. 70 79. 10 46. 2544 ? 32. 8456 1,078. 83 44 5. 00 94. 00 50. 3325 ? 43. 6675 1,906. 85 TOTALS 451. 223 9,016. 45 AVERAGE ? 10. 2551 ? 204. 92 ? (MAD) ? (MSE) Given that one wishes to develop a five-year forecast, trend analysis is the appropriate choice. Measures of error and goodness-of-fit are really irrelevant.Exponential smoothing provides a forecast only of deposits for the next yearand thus does not address the five-year forecast problem. In order to use the regression model based upon GSP, one must first develop a model to forecast GSP, and then use the forecast of GSP in the model to forecast deposits. This requires the development of two modelsone of which (the model for GSP) must be based solely on time as the independent variable (time is the only other variable we are given). (b)? One could make a case for exclusion of the older data. Were we to exclude data from roughly the first 25 years, the forecasts for the later year